TradeScopeProp firm evaluation calculator
Enter the firm’s rules and your own trading numbers. See whether the plan makes money, roughly how long the target takes, and how many losses each limit allows.
- Expectancy per trade
- $12.50
- Expectancy per day
- $37.50
- Reward to risk
- 1.50 : 1
- Breakeven win rate
- 40%
- Losses to hit the daily limit
- 10
- Losses to end the account
- 20
An average over many attempts, not a forecast. Real evaluations vary widely either side.
How the numbers are worked out
Everything starts from expectancy: what a trade makes on average once wins and losses are both counted.
expectancy = win rate × average win − (1 − win rate) × average loss
days to target = profit target ÷ (expectancy × trades per day)
breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
An example. You win 45% of the time, with an average win of $150 and an average loss of $100. Expectancy is 0.45 × $150 − 0.55 × $100, which is $12.50 a trade. At three trades a day that is $37.50 a day, so a $3,000 target takes 80 trading days on average. Your breakeven win rate is $100 ÷ $250, or 40%.
The two numbers people skip
- Losses to hit the daily limit. A $1,000 daily limit and a $100 average loss means ten losses ends your day. If you take more trades than that on a bad day, the limit is in reach.
- Losses to end the account. A $2,000 drawdown and a $100 average loss is twenty losses in total, fewer if the drawdown trails your balance upward.
If either number is small, the plan depends on never having a bad run. Trade smaller: use the position size calculator to size against the drawdown, not the account’s headline size.
What this calculator leaves out
- Trailing drawdown, which tightens as your balance rises.
- Consistency rules, such as a cap on how much of the target one day can contribute.
- Minimum trading days and time limits.
- Commission and fees, unless your average win and loss already include them.
To see what the attempt costs, use the prop firm break-even calculator.
Questions
How long does it take to pass a prop firm evaluation?
It depends on your edge and how often you trade. Work out your average profit per trade (win rate × average win, minus loss rate × average loss), multiply by trades per day, and divide the profit target by that. With a $12.50 average per trade and three trades a day, a $3,000 target takes about 80 trading days on average. Many firms also set a minimum number of trading days.
What win rate do I need to pass?
Enough to be profitable at your reward-to-risk ratio. The breakeven win rate is your average loss divided by the sum of your average win and average loss. With a $150 average win and a $100 average loss, breakeven is 40%, so anything above that makes money over time.
What is expectancy?
The average amount you make or lose per trade across many trades: win rate × average win, minus loss rate × average loss. A positive expectancy is the minimum requirement for any plan to work.
Does this account for trailing drawdown?
Only roughly. It shows how many average losses in a row would use up the drawdown, but a trailing drawdown moves up as your balance rises, which makes it tighter than a fixed one. Check how your firm calculates it.
Is the number of days a prediction?
No. It is an average over many attempts. A real evaluation is a short run of trades, so results vary widely either side, and a string of losses can end it early even when your edge is positive.
TradeScope
This calculator needs your win rate, average win and average loss. TradeScope has them.
TradeScope reads your NinjaTrader 8 history and works out those three numbers for each account from your real trades, along with expectancy, drawdown and profit factor. Use them here instead of a guess.
For NinjaTrader 8. Free for 7 days on your own trades. No card needed.
More calculators
- Position size calculatorHow many contracts to trade for a fixed dollar risk and stop.
- Prop firm break-even calculatorWhat an evaluation really costs, and the profit needed to earn it back.
- Futures tick valuesTick size, tick value and point value for the contracts most people trade.
These calculators are for education. They are not advice, and they can’t predict results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss. Contract specifications and prop firm rules change, so confirm them with the exchange, your broker or the firm.